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No. 146714 Economic Data Analysis Project
Economic Data Analysis
L1D009
Oliver Frost
Student No. 4042216
CONTENTS:
Page number
- I. INTRODUCTION………………………………………………………. 3
-
II. UNDERLYING THEORIES …………………………………………… 4
-
a. Keynes theory ……………………………………………………. 4-5
- i. Precautionally demand for money…………………………..
- ii. Speculative demand for money……………………………….
- iii. Liquidity preference……………………………………………
- b. Friedman's theory………………………………………………… 5-6
-
a. Keynes theory ……………………………………………………. 4-5
- III. MODEL SPECIFICATION AND ESTIMATION………………………7
- i. Data………………………………………………………………… 7
- ii. Model specification………………………………………………. 8
- iii. Estimation of model……………………………………………… 9
- IV. ANALYSIS OF THE RESULTS ……………………………………….. 10
- V. SUMMARY ………………………………………………………………. 11
- VI. BIBLIOGRAPHY ……………………………………………………….. 12
- I. INTRODUCTION:
This is a study that focuses on the relationship that exist between the interest rates that prevail in an economy and the amount of money demanded in an economy, the intuition is that when interest rates are high then we expect that the amount of money demanded in the economy will be less, this is because interests rate is the opportunity cost of holding money.
When interest rates are high the opportunity costs of borrowed funds is too high and therefore less of it is demanded. When interest rates are low then people will demand more money in an economy. Government will therefore use interest rates as a tool to stabilise the economy in case of inflation caused by excess demand.
Various theories exist to explain the factors that determine the demand for money, this include the Keynesian demand for money theory, Milton Friedman's quantity demand for money theory, Tobin's liquidity preference theory and the Fisher's money theory.
In this study we will use UK data from the year 1984 to the year 1994 to analyse the relationship that exist between the money supply and the interest rates that prevail in the economy, the data will be used to estimate the equation Md = F (IR) where Md is the money demanded in an economy, and IR is the interest rate. Therefore the model states that moey demand is a function of interest rates.
- II. UNDERLYING THEORIES:
Many theories have come up to explain the factors that determine demand for money in the economy; they include the Keynes theory, the Milton theory and the Fishers theory of money. All this scholars recognise the effect of changes in interest rates on money demanded.
- a. Keynes theory
Keynes argued that money demand in an economy is determined by three factors, the precautionally demand for money, liquidity preference and the speculative demand for money. The amount held by firms and individuals depend on the level of income and the institutional arrangements of the economy, they will hold money for their day to day transactions in order to purchase goods and services.
- Precautionally demand for money
The precautionally demand for money arises from uncertainties of life and unseen events, the amount held will depend on the level of income, the higher the level of income the higher the amount held for precautionally purposes, the prevailing interest rates will also determine the amount held for precautionally purposes, because the interest rates are the opportunity costs of holding money the higher they are the less is the amount held.
Institutional arrangement will also determine the amount held in that if an economy provides certain services such free medical care the less the amount held by the people for precautionally purposes.
- Speculative demand for money
This demand for money arises when the individuals and firms in an economy hold money for the purpose of speculation, money is therefore held as an asset and therefore they will hold money for the purpose of purchasing other interest bearing assets. The amount held for speculation purposes depend on the level of interest rates and the level of income.
- Liquidity preference
This demand will arise from the fact that people and firms will hold money for the purpose of their day to day transactions; they will hold money to purchase goods and services.[1]
- b. Friedman's theory
According to Friedman sees money as just another way in which wealth can be held, he assumes that money is like any other asset. He argued that the demand of money is determined by the total wealth of an individual, the expected rate of interest, the ratio of human to non human wealth and the taste and preferences of people in an economy.
He derived the following model
Real demand for money = F (W, r, w, T)
Where:
W is the total wealth of an individual, as W increases the demand for money also increases.
r is the expected rate of interest, as the rate of interest rate increases the less is the amount of money demanded.
w is the ratio of human and non human wealth, human wealth is less liquid than any other form of wealth so an increase in the liquidity of human wealth will increase the amount of money demanded.
Therefore the two scholars recognise the relationship between the rate of interest and the amount of money demanded. We therefore now establish the relationship between them using the data from the UK economy from the year 1984 to the year 1994. We shall use this data to estimate the equation Md = F (IR) where Md is the money demanded in an economy, and IR is the interest rate.
- Estimation of the model:
We will use the classical estimation model to estimate the model, the classical regression model states that when the model takes the form of Y= α + β x, then you estimate the model as follows:
α = Y- β x, and that
β = n ∑x y - ∑ x∑ y
______________
n ∑ x2 - (∑ x) 2
Where n is the number of observations and therefore we estimate our model using the data provided, our y will be the money demand Md and x will be our interest rates IR, we therefore obtain our products for x and y, and x2 . Our results are shown in table two.[6]
Table two
YEAR
INTEREST RATES
MEASURE OF MONEY HOLDINGS
PRICE INDEX
REAL MONEY SUPPLY
x
y
xy
x2
1984
1.1069
198.93
1.381169257
274.756
304.1274
1.225228
1985
1.1062
224.794
1.310549802
294.6037
325.8906
1.223678
1986
1.0987
258.304
1.255425976
324.2816
356.2881
1.207142
1987
1.0947
304.948
1.196775992
364.9544
399.5156
1.198368
1988
1.0936
358.233
1.131930881
405.495
443.4493
1.195961
1989
1.0958
426.322
1.060378314
452.0626
495.3702
1.200778
1990
1.1108
477.138
1
477.138
530.0049
1.233877
1991
1.0992
504.133
0.942661674
475.2269
522.3694
1.208241
1992
1.0912
517.883
0.907892846
470.1823
513.0629
1.190717
1993
1.0787
544.055
0.879301378
478.3883
516.0375
1.163594
1994
1.0805
567.157
0.859186805
487.2938
526.521
1.16748
totals
12.0563
4381.897
11.92527292
4504.383
4932.637
13.21506
β = 377.1521317
α = 79.78093248
Therefore our model takes the form of Y = 79.78093248 + 377.1521317 x
- IV. ANALYSIS OF THE RESULTS:
According to the results of the estimated model which is
Y = 79.78093248 + 377.1521317 x
The autonomous money demanded is 79.8 million pounds and an increase in the interest rates by one unit will increase the amount of money demanded by 377.2 million pounds.
Therefore an increase in the money supply will increase the amount of money demanded, our results however have not shown the significance of an increase in interest rates, the resulting positive relationship between money demanded and interest rates is as a result of the small sample used, we did not also consider the other factors that influence money demand, also we used a simple regression model instead of a multiple regression model where we would have considered more than factor that influence demand.
We also assumed that money supply is equal to money demand; in this case we did not consider a case where the two values would be at disequilibrium, however if we reverted the model to assume that money supply is a function of interest rates then our model would be different in that an increase in interest rates will signal to the financial institutions to increase money supply.
- V. SUMMARY
According to Keynes and Milton Friedman the quantity of money demanded is determined by other factors and these factors include interest rates, if an economy increased its interest rates then we would expect that the amount of money demanded will go down.
However interest rates are used by central financial institutions to either increase or decrease the amount of money in the economy, an increase in interest rates reduces the amount of money in supply of an economy, and a decrease in these interest rates will increase the amount of money in the economy.
Economies will use interest rates as a way of stabilising the economy to avoid inflation and unemployment, when there is inflation monetary policy makers will increase interest rates. An increase in money supply will result into increased aggregate demand for goods and services in the economy but this may cause inflation, therefore monetary policy makers will only fine tune the economy using interest rates only when the economy is unstable.
- VI. BIBLIOGRAPHY
H. Stratton (1999) Economics: A New Introduction, Pluto Press, USA
National statistics (2006) General practice research data base-UK 1987 to 2003, retrieved on 21st Dec.
P. A. Samuelson (1964) Economics, McGraw-Hill publishers, USA
P. Schmidt (1976) Econometrics, Marcel Dekker publishers, USA
Sergio J. Rey (1956) Advances in Spatial Econometrics: methodology, tools and applications, Springer publishers, USA
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